Chinese RMB: Can it Become the Pivotal Currency in the Region?

The following write-up picks up from the recent decisions taken by the Chinese monetary authorities during the second half of 2010. They led to a first step in the internationalization of the Chinese currency, at least to its regionalization. This move is analyzed in a comparison with what had been done previously in other countries of the region, Japan in particular, based on different rationale and especialy very different consequences. Those were mostly negative. This decision is also put into perspective against analyses written since quite a number of years in China and in reviews released in Hong Kong as well, in order to understand that the decision initiated in July 2010 is also a top-down, “sui generis” decision” and has to be understood so. It has to be placed on the background of a plan which takes into account several parameters: the request for greater involvement by China into the monetary system and a potential deterioration of the state of the financial and monetary order. In both cases, the various steps taken during the last year can truly make the renminbi play a role as a “pivot-currency” in the region and this can happen either if this region becomes more integrated within the global monetary and financial system or if the currency “de-synchronizes”, in the hypothesis of regional financial block being built up.