Will Argentina's Pay-As-You-Go Pension System Survive the 2016 Reform?

This paper recounts Argentina's pay-as-you-go pension system evolutions from 1993 to the eve of 2016's reform, which introduces a “National historic reparation program for retirees and pensioners”. We show that even though social security system's budget was balanced and provisioned by a buffer fund (the FGS) equal to 13% of GDP, the federal government maintained disputes with retirees whose pensions were incorrectly adjusted to inflation between 2002 and 2006. This balanced budget was also attained to the detriment of the provinces, which were deprived of some of their fiscal resources. This reform offers a compensation payment to wronged retirees and gradually gives the provinces back the aforementioned fiscal resources. Its financing relies however on the higher transfers from the Treasury and the FGS that will probably be emptied to fund this reform. Since on top of that a structural reform is meant to take place three years from now, Argentina's pay-as-you-go pension scheme's future is today uncertain.