Forecasting the Future Number of Dependents: a Multifactorial Approach with a Probit Model

In recent years, France has experienced a major demographic shock as the baby-boom generation has entered old age. This ageing of the population brings with it new challenges, including the loss of autonomy. In this article, we propose a new approach for estimating the progression of dependency based on the estimation of a Probit model using Share survey data. We then use these results to project the number of dependents in France in 2030. Our results show that there will be nearly 3 million dependents in France at that time. The key feature of our approach is that it makes it possible to ascertain the future profile of dependents with a high degree of accuracy. We demonstrate that 50% of future dependents will have incomes of less than €25,000 a year, preventing them from choosing an EHPAD-type facility, whose average annual cost is estimated at €26,000, unless they are helped out.