THE QUESTION OF MARKET LIQUIDITY TAKING THE MEASURE OF CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY Comments Paper by the Association Française des Marchés Financiers
Monday 29 February 2016 AMAFIVanishing liquidity. Recently
published reports, papers and opinions (cf. summary bibliography in
Annex) reveal that market liquidity has become a key concern for
many financial market participants and observers, including first
and foremost market regulators, supervisors and central banks.
Their new sensitivity can be traced back to several market
disturbances in the recent period during which market liquidity
abruptly declined or even dried up temporarily. Examples include
the mini flash crash in US Treasuries on 15 October 2014, the
currency market turmoil caused by the run-up in the Swiss franc
after the Swiss central bank unexpectedly removed the euro peg on
15 January 2015, and the market shocks on 24 August 2015 sparked by
uncertainty about the situation and outlook of the Chinese economy.
Other examples, though seemingly less significant, further
underline the magnitude of the issue.
Avoid a repeat of the subprime crisis. Although thankfully these
disturbances were short-lived, their intensity sends a warning,
given the importance of liquidity to orderly markets.
No one is forgetting that while the particular nature of the
products involved played a decisive role, the subprime crisis was
triggered in mid-2007 by a realisation that these products,
previously thought of as liquid, were in fact virtually illiquid,
posing a major risk to the representativeness of the prices at
which they were traded. This created considerable uncertainty about
the balance sheet value of participants that had acquired the
products, especially banks, which unleashed the ensuing systemic
crisis.
Build a more resilient system by strengthening the resilience of
financial institutions. Since that time, the goal has been to
vigorously strengthen the resilience of the financial system in
general and of banks in particular, notably by bolstering the
prudential requirements placed on financial institutions.
But greater resilience will have limited effect if orderly markets,
of which liquidity is a key indicator, are not also in place.
Without fairly stable and sustainable market liquidity, the price
discovery process is undermined. This in turn raises questions
about the valuation of many assets and, more generally, about the
ability of economic agents to raise financing and hedge their risks
cost effectively. The danger is that this situation could trigger
the same spiral that in autumn 2008 dragged Western economies into
a crisis whose fall-out continues to this day. Accordingly, the
weaknesses exposed by the recently observed disruptions in
liquidity need our full attention.