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 What Lessons from History? or How to Cope with Large Increases in Public Debt?


Vincent BIGNON * Conseiller du directeur général des statistiques, des études et de l'international, Banque de France ; professeur associé, École d'économie d'Aix-Marseille ; membre, Center for Economic Policy Research. Contact : vincent.bignon@banque-france.fr.
Pierre SICSIC ** Conseiller du directeur général des statistiques, des études et de l'international, Banque de France. Contact : pierre.sicsic@banque-france.fr.Les auteurs remercient Pamfili Antipa pour ses conseils. Les opinions et les vues exprimées par les auteurs ne sont pas nécessairement celles de la Banque de France ou de l'Eurosystème.

How have societies coped with large increases in public debt? in the European history of the last three centuries, these moments have occurred mainly during and after wars, with the notable exception of the end of the 19th century and the end of the 20th century. these increases have had contrasting consequences both in terms of macroeconomic consequences and in terms of the solutions implemented to reduce these debt bumps. a distinctive element between these 20th century episodes and those of the 18th and 19th centuries was the use of financial engineering to smooth out the debt jumps, making it possible to « buy the time » necessary, in any post-war period, to restore macroeconomic equilibrium.