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 Should We Be Concerned about the High Burden of Public Debt? Lessons from the Japanese Case


Anton BRENDER * Chef économiste, Candriam Investors Group. Contact : anton.brender@candriam.com.
Florence PISANI ** Global Head of Economic Research, Candriam Investors Group ; enseignante, Université Paris-Dauphine. Contact : florence.pisani@candriam.com.

The steady rise in Japanese public debt is regularly a concern. Its role in managing the macroeconomic equilibrium – preventing growth from being stifled by an excess of private saving – is more rarely stressed. As long as private agents continue to want to spend less than they earn and to accumulate debt claims, it is futile to hope for a rapid fall in Japan's public debt to GDP ratio. Still, the government faces a major challenge: being able to generate budget surpluses tomorrow if private agents decide to spend more than they earn by drawing on the deposits they have accumulated.