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 Is This Now Brexit?


Catherine MATHIEU * Economist, Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE). Contact: catherine.mathieu@ofce.sciences-po.fr.

More than six years after the referendum on the UK's membership of the EU, Brexit is not entirely done. We start with recalling the main points of the EU-UK trade and cooperation agreement signed on December 30, 2020. We then make an assessment of the implementation of the agreement and its consequences on the UK economy by mid-2022, under two shocks of exceptional magnitude: the COVID19 pandemics since early 2020 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine since February 2022. Last, we address issues of the future EU-UK relationship. Liz Truss, Prime minister, wishes to abolish regulations inherited from the EU to strengthen UK attractiveness, but she seems also willing to find an agreement with the EU on the Northern Ireland Protocol and to join the European Political Community.

More than six years after the referendum that witnessed the victory of supporters of the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union (EU), Brexit has yet to be completed. The United Kingdom left the bodies of the EU on January 31, 2020, but remained in the single market during an 11-month transition period in order to give the United Kingdom and the EU time to negotiate exit terms. On December 24, 2020, a trade and cooperation agreement was signed at the last minute between the EU and the United Kingdom, making it possible to avoid an exit without an agreement, a hard Brexit. Tensions have persisted, particularly over the issue of Northern Ireland. The replacement of Boris Johnson by Liz Truss as Prime Minister in September 2022 could mark a new phase of Brexit, one of deregulation.The first part of this article recalls the main points…